Market Seasonality Desk
US Stock Market Seasonality
Based on historical data from 1950 to present, analyzing S&P 500 monthly seasonality patterns
November to April (historically higher returns than May to October)
Current Month
April
One of the strongest months, post-tax season rally
Next Month
May
Weak period begins
Seasonality Map
Seasonality Map
Strong start to the year, common "January Effect" (more pronounced in small caps)
Mixed and weak, relatively flat
Positive, end of Q1 rebound
One of the strongest months, post-tax season rally
Weak period begins
Weak, summer sluggishness
Strong rebound
Weak, low volume trading
Worst month, common declines
Positive but volatile, historical "crash month"
Year-end rally begins
Year-end rally, strong finish
All Monthly Data
All Monthly Data
| Month | Avg Return | Characteristics | Volatility |
|---|---|---|---|
Jan | +1.07% | Strong start to the year, common "January Effect" (more pronounced in small caps) | Medium |
Feb | -0.01% | Mixed and weak, relatively flat | Medium-High |
Mar | +1.13% | Positive, end of Q1 rebound | Medium |
AprNow | +1.46% | One of the strongest months, post-tax season rally | Medium |
May | +0.30% | Weak period begins | Low-Medium |
Jun | +0.11% | Weak, summer sluggishness | Low |
Jul | +1.28% | Strong rebound | Low |
Aug | -0.01% | Weak, low volume trading | Low |
Sep | -0.72% | Worst month, common declines | High |
Oct | +0.91% | Positive but volatile, historical "crash month" | High |
Nov | +1.82% | Year-end rally begins | Medium |
Dec | +1.49% | Year-end rally, strong finish | Medium |
Best Months
Best Months
Worst Months
Worst Months
Regime View
Regime View
Supports "Sell in May and go away" strategy, but long-term holding still outperforms timing
Volatility is higher in autumn (especially September-October), relatively stable in summer
Investment Recommendations
- Seasonality is for reference only, suitable for supplementing long-term strategies (e.g., dollar-cost averaging)
- Short-term trading should consider current macroeconomic factors (interest rates, economic data, elections), risk management, and diversification
- Historical data shows "time in the market" is far superior to "timing the market"
Important Disclaimer
Seasonality is for reference only and should supplement long-term strategies (e.g., dollar-cost averaging). Short-term trading should consider current macroeconomic factors (interest rates, economic data, elections), risk management, and diversification. Historical data shows "time in the market" is far superior to "timing the market".