US Stock Market Seasonality
Based on historical data from 1950 to present, analyzing S&P 500 monthly seasonality patterns
Current MonthStrong
March
+1.13%
Positive, end of Q1 rebound
Volatility:Medium
Next MonthStrong
April
+1.46%
One of the strongest months, post-tax season rally
Volatility:Medium
Best Six Months
November to April (historically higher returns than May to October)
+6.96%
NovDecJanFebMarApr
Weak Period
May to October ("Sell in May and go away" phenomenon)
+1.87%
MayJunJulAugSepOct
Best Months
1November+1.82%
2December+1.49%
3April+1.46%
Worst Months
1September-0.72%
2February-0.01%
3August-0.01%
All Monthly Data
| Month | Avg Return | Characteristics | Volatility |
|---|---|---|---|
Jan | +1.07% | Strong start to the year, common "January Effect" (more pronounced in small caps) | Medium |
Feb | -0.01% | Mixed and weak, relatively flat | Medium-High |
MarNow | +1.13% | Positive, end of Q1 rebound | Medium |
Apr | +1.46% | One of the strongest months, post-tax season rally | Medium |
May | +0.30% | Weak period begins | Low-Medium |
Jun | +0.11% | Weak, summer sluggishness | Low |
Jul | +1.28% | Strong rebound | Low |
Aug | -0.01% | Weak, low volume trading | Low |
Sep | -0.72% | Worst month, common declines | High |
Oct | +0.91% | Positive but volatile, historical "crash month" | High |
Nov | +1.82% | Year-end rally begins | Medium |
Dec | +1.49% | Year-end rally, strong finish | Medium |
Investment Recommendations
- Seasonality is for reference only, suitable for supplementing long-term strategies (e.g., dollar-cost averaging)
- Short-term trading should consider current macroeconomic factors (interest rates, economic data, elections), risk management, and diversification
- Historical data shows "time in the market" is far superior to "timing the market"
Important Disclaimer
Seasonality is for reference only and should supplement long-term strategies (e.g., dollar-cost averaging). Short-term trading should consider current macroeconomic factors (interest rates, economic data, elections), risk management, and diversification. Historical data shows "time in the market" is far superior to "timing the market".
Data source: S&P 500 historical data from 1950 to present (Visual Capitalist / YCharts)